Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-2 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus SV Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 4W 3D 3L at Merkur Spiel-Arena — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
SV Elversberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.70 for SV Elversberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% versus SV Elversberg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% | SV Elversberg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 xG and SV Elversberg 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.945 / defence 1.146 | SV Elversberg attack 0.850 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.451. Data: 46 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 46 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 35%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | SV Elversberg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SV Elversberg 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 / SV Elversberg 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.945 / def 1.146 | SV Elversberg attack 0.850 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SV Elversberg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 2 SV Elversberg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 36% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.94x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.85x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
36%
2.76
28%
3.53
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.85
1.41
SV Elversberg xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.41 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 24W 11D 11L from 46 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 18L across 46 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Elversberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 7W 6D 10L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.54 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 61%.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 11D 11L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Elversberg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.57 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-5 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
2
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%, SV Elversberg 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 61% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 65% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 61% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 xG and SV Elversberg 1.41 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against SV Elversberg attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 35%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, SV Elversberg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with SV Elversberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.