Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.70 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour SC Paderborn 07, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 3–4 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% and SC Paderborn 07 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.982 / defence 1.210 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.034 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.482. Data: 45 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 45 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 42%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.51 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 / SC Paderborn 07 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.982 / def 1.210 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.034 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.86
SC Paderborn 07 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 34% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 4W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
34%
2.97
24%
4.11
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.51
1.86
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
16%
6.40
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
5%
19.00
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.86 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 10D 11L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.60 PPG from 45 outings (20W 12D 13L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.82 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 10W 5D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.64 points per game from 22 outings (10W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.60 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 69%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 12D 13L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.59 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 59%, SC Paderborn 07 at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 82% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 82% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 82% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.65 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.86 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 42%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.