Preußen Münster 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 39%, yet in-form 1. FC Köln provide a compelling counter-argument — this Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1. FC Köln travel to Preußen-Stadion to take on Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Preußen Münster have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preußen Münster's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across their last 6 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Köln's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. 1. FC Köln are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Preußen Münster in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 67% and 1. FC Köln 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 50% | 1. FC Köln 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.811 / defence 1.010 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.926 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.446. Data: built from Preußen Münster's last 12 games and 1. FC Köln's last 12.
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.56 | Draw 3.49 | 1. FC Köln 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preußen Münster are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Köln (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preußen Münster offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Preußen Münster's last 6 home games and 1. FC Köln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Preußen Münster 50% (last 6 home games) | 1. FC Köln 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Preußen Münster 1.50 / 1. FC Köln 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.811 / def 1.010 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.926 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Preußen Münster (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.35
1. FC Köln xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln FAQs
What time does Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Preußen Münster 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln part of?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preußen Münster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.81x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Preußen Münster's last 12 games and 1. FC Köln's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Preußen Münster Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.49
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.86
1.35
1. FC Köln xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.35 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Preußen Münster have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 2W 5D 5L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Köln's form line: 5W 3D 4L from 12 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, 1. FC Köln are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preußen Münster.
Venue Form
On home soil, Preußen Münster have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 5 home games (1W 2D 2L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 67%.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
Preußen Münster (Home) vs 1. FC Köln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln Form FAQs
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Preußen Münster or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preußen Münster have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Preußen Münster have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 April 2025: 1. FC Köln 3-1 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Preußen Münster at 60%, 1. FC Köln at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Preußen Münster and 80% for 1. FC Köln. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Köln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Preußen Münster's games and 80% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Preußen Münster's matches and 80% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do Preußen Münster and 1. FC Köln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 100% of 1. FC Köln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Köln defy the odds to beat Preußen Münster 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Preußen Münster 0-1 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.50 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.35 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Preußen Münster fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.93 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, 1. FC Köln 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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