PAU 0-3 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Annecy travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAU have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Annecy have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.50 PPG versus Annecy's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, PAU have won 1, Annecy 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Annecy trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Annecy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 41% | Annecy 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.65 xG and Annecy 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.229 / defence 1.070 | Annecy attack 0.894 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.034. Data: 44 PAU games / 44 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 52% | Draw 26% | Annecy 22%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 4.55. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Annecy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 52% | Draw 26% | Annecy 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG PAU 1.65 / Annecy 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.229 / def 1.070 | Annecy attack 0.894 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: PAU (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Annecy kick off?
PAU vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Annecy?
PAU 0 - 3 Annecy.
Where is PAU vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Annecy part of?
PAU vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 52% chance of winning, Annecy a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both PAU and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are PAU and Annecy in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.23x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.88
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
PAU xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Annecy xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
4%
23.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are PAU and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for PAU and 0.99 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAU's recent record stands at 14W 13D 17L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for PAU, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 16L across 44 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.25 PPG, Annecy on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, PAU have managed 8W 6D 7L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 2W 10D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Annecy's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.02 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Annecy in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Annecy have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Annecy away?
PAU's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.43 PPG; Annecy away: 0.76 PPG.
Have PAU or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PAU
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Annecy 5-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 43%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAU) and 52% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 29% of games; Annecy in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of PAU's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAU's recent games and 52% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Annecy tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Annecy in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat PAU 0-3 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.65 xG and Annecy 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Annecy outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.23 / defence 1.07 against Annecy attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 52% | Draw 26% | Annecy 22%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Annecy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 41%, Annecy 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.25 PPG, Annecy 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.