Bastia 1-4 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bastia at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bastia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
PAU's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Bastia, 1.40 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bastia edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Bastia 6–2 PAU — a Bastia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus PAU 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | PAU 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 2.07 xG and PAU 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.201 / defence 1.234 | PAU attack 0.975 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. PAU's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bastia's projected output up. Bastia's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Data: built from Bastia's last 45 games and PAU's last 45.
Result probabilities: Bastia 56% | Draw 22% | PAU 22%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.80 | Draw 4.50 | PAU 4.49. The model has a clear lean to Bastia (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (2.07 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 70% (last 10 home games) | PAU 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 56% | Draw 22% | PAU 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Bastia 2.07 / PAU 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.201 / def 1.234 | PAU attack 0.975 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Bastia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.26
PAU xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs PAU FAQs
What time does Bastia vs PAU kick off?
Bastia vs PAU kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs PAU?
Bastia 1 - 4 PAU.
Where is Bastia vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs PAU part of?
Bastia vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 56% chance of winning, PAU a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bastia and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bastia vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.20) and PAU's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.97x) against Bastia's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 45 games and PAU's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
56%
1.80
22%
4.50
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.33
1.26
PAU xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
3%
35.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Bastia and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Bastia and 1.26 for PAU, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs PAU?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 11D 15L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.22 PPG from 45 outings (14W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Bastia against 1.22 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.09 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
Bastia (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Early Season
PAU
Early Season
❓ Bastia vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and PAU in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while PAU have gone 14W 13D 18L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or PAU away?
Bastia's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.95 PPG; PAU away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Bastia or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won PAU 2-6 Bastia on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bastia
5
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and PAU?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 3, PAU have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and PAU?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, PAU 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bastia) and 36% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; PAU in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bastia's recent games and 36% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Bastia's recent matches and 77% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Bastia 1-4 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 2.07 xG and PAU 1.26 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. PAU outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 56% | Draw 22% | PAU 22%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, PAU 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.51 PPG, PAU 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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