Laval 2-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Laval welcome Guingamp to Stade Francis Le Basser. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Laval — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Laval have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Laval's home record at Stade Francis Le Basser: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Laval at 2.20 PPG versus Guingamp's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Laval have won 0, Guingamp 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Laval trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Guingamp trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 48% versus Guingamp 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 57% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.46 xG and Guingamp 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.041 / defence 0.825 | Guingamp attack 1.142 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.034. Data: 44 Laval games / 44 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 48% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 25%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 4.00. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Laval 50% | Guingamp 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 48% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Laval 1.46 / Guingamp 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.041 / def 0.825 | Guingamp attack 1.142 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Laval (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Guingamp kick off?
Laval vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Laval 2 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Laval vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Guingamp part of?
Laval vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 48% chance of winning, Guingamp a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Laval and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
Record (2 meetings): Laval 0W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Laval and Guingamp in?
Laval (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Laval's attack rating (1.04) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.60
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Laval xG
Total xG
2.44
0.97
Guingamp xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Laval and 0.97 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Laval have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 18W 5D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Laval, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.34 PPG, Guingamp on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.73 PPG from 22 outings (12W 2D 8L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 7D 6L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Laval are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 18W 5D 21L in their last 44 games (1.34 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Guingamp away?
Laval's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.73 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Laval or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Laval and Guingamp runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Laval's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
1
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 2, Guingamp have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Laval 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 54%, Guingamp 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Laval) and 41% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Laval's games and 59% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Laval's recent games and 41% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Guingamp tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Guingamp 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Guingamp 2-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.46 xG and Guingamp 0.97 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.04 / defence 0.82 against Guingamp attack 1.14 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 48% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 25%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 57%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.34 PPG, Guingamp 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.