Paris FC 2-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rodez travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC in Ligue 2 (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris FC stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Paris FC have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Rodez have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Rodez have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris FC 1.40 PPG, Rodez 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Paris FC have won 2, Rodez 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Paris FC 0–0 Rodez — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 45% versus Rodez 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Rodez 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.64 xG and Rodez 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.009 / defence 1.080 | Rodez attack 1.023 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Rodez's defence rating of 1.308 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Paris FC's projected output up. Data: built from Paris FC's last 54 games and Rodez's last 53.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.14 | Draw 4.06 | Rodez 3.50. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 30% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Paris FC 1.64 / Rodez 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.009 / def 1.080 | Rodez attack 1.023 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rodez xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Rodez kick off?
Paris FC vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Paris FC 2 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Paris FC vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Rodez part of?
Paris FC vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, Rodez a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Paris FC and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 54 games and Rodez's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
47%
2.14
25%
4.06
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.23
Rodez xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.23 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 53 games, going 21W 11D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.25 PPG from 53 outings (16W 18D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.40 PPG, Rodez on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 10W 4D 12L across their last 26 home games, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 9D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Rodez
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Rodez in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while Rodez have gone 16W 18D 19L in their last 53 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Rodez away?
Paris FC's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.31 PPG; Rodez away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Rodez in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Paris FC's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Paris FC
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Rodez?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 3, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Rodez 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Rodez?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 38%, Rodez 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Paris FC) and 46% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Paris FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Rodez in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Paris FC's recent matches and 54% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Paris FC's recent games and 46% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Paris FC's recent matches and 50% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Rodez 2-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.64 xG and Rodez 1.23 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rodez landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Rodez attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Rodez 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.40 PPG, Rodez 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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