Estac Troyes 2-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Estac Troyes welcome Amiens to Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2 (matchday 17). Kick-off is Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Estac Troyes's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Estac Troyes) versus 1.10 (Amiens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 67% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 59% | Amiens 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.96 xG and Amiens 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.790 / defence 1.053 | Amiens attack 0.766 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Amiens's attack rating of 0.766 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.90. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 16 games and Amiens's last 54.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 33% | Amiens 32%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.82 | Draw 3.07 | Amiens 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 72% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 17 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 33% | Amiens 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Estac Troyes 0.96 / Amiens 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.790 / def 1.053 | Amiens attack 0.766 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Amiens xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Amiens kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Amiens kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Estac Troyes 2 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Amiens part of?
Estac Troyes vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 17) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 35% chance of winning, Amiens a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Estac Troyes and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Estac Troyes vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 16 games and Amiens's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
35%
2.82
33%
3.07
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.85
0.90
Amiens xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 14.0 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.90 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 54 games, going 7W 19D 28L for 0.74 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.30 PPG from 54 outings (19W 13D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Amiens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 3W 13D 9L across their last 25 home games, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 6D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Amiens in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 7W 19D 28L in their last 54 games (0.74 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.88 PPG; Amiens away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Estac Troyes have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won Amiens 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2026: Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Amiens?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 68%, Amiens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Estac Troyes) and 44% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 32% of games; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Amiens matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Estac Troyes's games and 48% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Estac Troyes and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 44% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 80% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Amiens 2-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.96 xG and Amiens 0.90 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Amiens attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 35% | Draw 33% | Amiens 32%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 59%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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