Quevilly 3-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Quevilly at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Bordeaux travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bordeaux — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 1.00 PPG, Bordeaux 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Quevilly have won 0, Bordeaux 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Quevilly trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bordeaux trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 53% versus Bordeaux 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 51% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.21 xG and Bordeaux 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.900 / defence 1.072 | Bordeaux attack 0.853 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.110. Data: 54 Quevilly games / 53 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 31%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Bordeaux 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 50% | Bordeaux 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 40% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Quevilly 1.21 / Bordeaux 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.900 / def 1.072 | Bordeaux attack 0.853 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Bordeaux xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Bordeaux kick off?
Quevilly vs Bordeaux kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 December 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Quevilly 3 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Quevilly vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Bordeaux part of?
Quevilly vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 40% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Quevilly and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bordeaux?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Bordeaux in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.44
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.22
1.01
Bordeaux xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.01 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 19D 20L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux's form line: 25W 13D 15L from 53 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bordeaux are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Quevilly.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.23 PPG from 26 outings (7W 11D 8L).
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 9W 7D 10L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.26 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 14W 19D 20L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.23 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Quevilly's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Bordeaux have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Bordeaux 0-0 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 65%, Bordeaux 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Quevilly) and 42% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 31%; Quevilly have failed to score in 27% of games; Bordeaux in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Quevilly's recent matches and 38% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Quevilly's recent games and 42% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out Bordeaux 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Bordeaux 3-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.21 xG and Bordeaux 1.01 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Bordeaux attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 40% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 31%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 51%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Quevilly winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.