PAU 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Amiens meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
PAU's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Amiens have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for PAU, 1 for Amiens and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended PAU 0–1 Amiens — a Amiens win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 44% | Amiens 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.55 xG and Amiens 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.075 / defence 1.260 | Amiens attack 0.824 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. PAU's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 46 games and Amiens's last 46.
Result probabilities: PAU 48% | Draw 25% | Amiens 27%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.08 | Draw 3.95 | Amiens 3.75. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAU 50% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 48% | Draw 25% | Amiens 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG PAU 1.55 / Amiens 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.075 / def 1.260 | Amiens attack 0.824 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAU (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Amiens xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Amiens FAQs
What time does PAU vs Amiens kick off?
PAU vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Amiens?
PAU 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is PAU vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Amiens part of?
PAU vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 48% chance of winning, Amiens a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both PAU and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.07x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.82x) against PAU's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 46 games and Amiens's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.95
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
PAU xG
Total xG
2.64
1.09
Amiens xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for PAU and 1.09 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 13D 18L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.33 PPG from 46 outings (17W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for PAU against 1.33 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAU's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.05 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Amiens
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ PAU vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Amiens in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Amiens have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Amiens away?
PAU's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.36 PPG; Amiens away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between PAU and Amiens, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
PAU
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAU and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Amiens?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 41%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 50% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 32% of games; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 50% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of PAU's recent matches and 77% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.55 xG and Amiens 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.07 / defence 1.26 against Amiens attack 0.82 / defence 1.17, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 48% | Draw 25% | Amiens 27%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 44%, Amiens 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.26 PPG, Amiens 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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