Slovácko 5-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slovácko face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Slovácko — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Slovácko at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians 1905 stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians 1905 away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 1.50 PPG versus Bohemians 1905's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Slovácko's 30% BTTS rate and Bohemians 1905's 30% (from Slovácko's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Slovácko have won 1, Bohemians 1905 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Slovácko 1–0 Bohemians 1905 — a Slovácko win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 41% versus Bohemians 1905 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 39% | Bohemians 1905 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.941 / defence 0.707 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.817 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.189. Slovácko have a tight defence (rating 0.707), which is pulling Bohemians 1905's projected output down. Data: built from Slovácko's last 47 games and Bohemians 1905's last 46.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 20%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.96 | Draw 3.43 | Bohemians 1905 5.03. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Slovácko's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovácko 30% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Slovácko 1.29 / Bohemians 1905 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.941 / def 0.707 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.817 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Bohemians 1905 xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovácko 5 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 51% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.94x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovácko's last 47 games and Bohemians 1905's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.43
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Slovácko xG
Total xG
1.97
0.69
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.69 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 21W 15D 15L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 21W 10D 20L from 51 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.53 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 26 home games (13W 8D 5L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 3D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.35 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovácko (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 21W 15D 15L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 21W 10D 20L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovácko's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.81 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won Slovácko 5-2 Bohemians 1905.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
3
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovácko have won 2, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Bohemians 1905 2-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 38%, Bohemians 1905 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Slovácko) and 54% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slovácko's recent matches and 46% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Slovácko's recent games and 54% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Slovácko's recent matches and 77% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slovácko run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Bohemians 1905 5-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.29 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.69 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.94 / defence 0.71 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 20%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 39%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.53 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.