Sigma Olomouc 1-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sigma Olomouc face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Slovácko travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sigma Olomouc's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Slovácko — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Slovácko's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.70 (Slovácko). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Slovácko and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Sigma Olomouc 2–0 Slovácko — a Sigma Olomouc win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 57% versus Slovácko 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 57% | Slovácko 41%). Note also that Slovácko surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Sigma Olomouc recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.50 xG and Slovácko 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.010 / defence 1.059 | Slovácko attack 1.004 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.154. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 46 games and Slovácko's last 46.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.30 | Draw 3.93 | Slovácko 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 50% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.50 / Slovácko 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.010 / def 1.059 | Slovácko attack 1.004 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Slovácko xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance of winning, Slovácko a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.01x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 46 games and Slovácko's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
43%
2.30
25%
3.93
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Slovácko xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.23 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 15D 16L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.53 PPG from 51 outings (21W 15D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.47 PPG, Slovácko on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across their last 25 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.18 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 games (1.47 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 21W 15D 15L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slovácko away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.44 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slovácko in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Slovácko have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Slovácko 1-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 60%, Slovácko 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sigma Olomouc and 52% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 44% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 52% of Slovácko's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 72% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc and Slovácko finished level at 1-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.50 xG and Slovácko 1.23 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Slovácko attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 31%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 57%, Slovácko 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.47 PPG, Slovácko 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.