Slovan Liberec 5-3 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovan Liberec at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovan Liberec vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovan Liberec host Zlin at Stadion u Nisy in Czech Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Slovan Liberec have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Slovan Liberec's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zlin stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Zlin have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Slovan Liberec carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 3 for Zlin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Slovan Liberec 1–1 Zlin — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Zlin in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovan Liberec 62% and Zlin 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 58% | Zlin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.61 xG and Zlin 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.074 / defence 0.945 | Zlin attack 0.684 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.189. Zlin's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 46 games and Zlin's last 46.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 57% | Draw 25% | Zlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 1.74 | Draw 4.02 | Zlin 5.62. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slovan Liberec are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 50% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 57% | Draw 25% | Zlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.61 / Zlin 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.074 / def 0.945 | Zlin attack 0.684 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Zlin xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Zlin kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Slovan Liberec 5 - 3 Zlin.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Zlin part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 18) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 57% chance of winning, Zlin a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovan Liberec's attack rating (1.07) and Zlin's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 46 games and Zlin's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.02
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.38
0.77
Zlin xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
4%
28.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.5 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.77 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Slovan Liberec have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 14D 19L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Zlin's form line: 10W 18D 22L from 50 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.30 PPG, Zlin on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Slovan Liberec have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 6D 9L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 11D 13L from their last 26 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.14 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovan Liberec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zlin in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Zlin in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 18D 22L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Zlin away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.50 PPG; Zlin away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovan Liberec have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
1
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Zlin?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Zlin have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Zlin 0-1 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 58%, Zlin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Slovan Liberec) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 31%; Zlin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 50% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 62% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Zlin 5-3 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.61 xG and Zlin 0.77 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Slovan Liberec beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zlin outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Zlin attack 0.68 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 57% | Draw 25% | Zlin 18%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 58%, Zlin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.30 PPG, Zlin 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.