Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Plzen, 2 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus Bohemians 1905 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 65% | Bohemians 1905 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.73 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.139 / defence 0.997 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.885 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.095. Data: 35 Plzen games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 21%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 80% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Plzen 1.73 / Bohemians 1905 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.139 / def 0.997 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.885 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Plzen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Plzen 2 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 55% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.14) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.21
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.69
0.96
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
26.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Plzen and 0.96 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 8D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.45 PPG from 40 outings (17W 7D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.78 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.45 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 21W 8D 11L in their last 40 games (1.78 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Plzen's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.85 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 65%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Plzen and 60% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Plzen's games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plzen's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Plzen and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 2-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.73 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.96 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 55% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 21%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 65%, Bohemians 1905 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.78 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.