Plzen 2-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plzen face Sigma Olomouc.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Plzen have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 1.20 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Plzen have won 0, Sigma Olomouc 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Plzen 1–3 Sigma Olomouc — a Sigma Olomouc win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus Sigma Olomouc 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 64% | Sigma Olomouc 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.46 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.098 / defence 0.952 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.949 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.260. Data: built from Plzen's last 34 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 34.
Result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.26 | Draw 3.78 | Sigma Olomouc 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Sigma Olomouc's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plzen 80% (last 10 home games) | Sigma Olomouc 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 5 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Plzen 1.46 / Sigma Olomouc 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.098 / def 0.952 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.949 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Plzen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen 2 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 5) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 44% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.10) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 34 games and Sigma Olomouc's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.78
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.60
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Plzen and 1.14 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 8D 11L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.46 PPG from 39 outings (15W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 1.74 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across their last 20 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 20 away games (8W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
Plzen (Home) vs Sigma Olomouc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 games (1.74 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.85 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 6, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Plzen 2-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 65%, Sigma Olomouc 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Plzen) and 45% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Sigma Olomouc matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Plzen's games and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plzen's matches and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Plzen's recent matches and 80% of Sigma Olomouc's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 2-1 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.46 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 44% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 64%, Sigma Olomouc 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 1.74 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.