Charleroi 1-1 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Standard Liege travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Charleroi have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Standard Liege stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Standard Liege away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Charleroi are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Charleroi trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Standard Liege trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 57% versus Standard Liege 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 57% | Standard Liege 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.36 xG and Standard Liege 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.942 / defence 0.955 | Standard Liege attack 0.935 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.269. Data: built from Charleroi's last 35 games and Standard Liege's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 42% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 31%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.38 | Draw 3.73 | Standard Liege 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charleroi 40% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Charleroi 35 games, Standard Liege 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 3 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 42% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Charleroi 1.36 / Standard Liege 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.942 / def 0.955 | Standard Liege attack 0.935 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Standard Liege xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Charleroi vs Standard Liege kick off?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Charleroi 1 - 1 Standard Liege.
Where is Charleroi vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Standard Liege part of?
Charleroi vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 3) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 42% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charleroi and Standard Liege will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Charleroi vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.94) and Standard Liege's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charleroi's last 35 games and Standard Liege's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.73
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Standard Liege xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
8%
12.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.13 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 14W 7D 14L from 35 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 14L across 35 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.40 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 7W 3D 7L from their last 17 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across their last 17 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.37 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
Charleroi (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charleroi
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Charleroi and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 7D 14L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Standard Liege away?
Charleroi's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.41 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charleroi have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Charleroi
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Charleroi have won 5, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Standard Liege?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 59%, Standard Liege 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Charleroi) and 47% (Standard Liege).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charleroi vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charleroi and Standard Liege matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Charleroi's recent matches and 47% of Standard Liege's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charleroi and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Charleroi's recent games and 47% of Standard Liege's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Charleroi's recent matches and 53% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Standard Liege share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 3, as Charleroi and Standard Liege drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.36 xG and Standard Liege 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.94 / defence 0.95 against Standard Liege attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 42% | Draw 27% | Standard Liege 31%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 57%, Standard Liege 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Standard Liege's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, Standard Liege 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.