Cercle Brugge 2-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cercle Brugge face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cercle Brugge stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Cercle Brugge have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Charleroi have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cercle Brugge 1.70 PPG, Charleroi 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cercle Brugge's games and 60% of Charleroi's (from Cercle Brugge's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Cercle Brugge have won 1, Charleroi 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2023, ended Cercle Brugge 1–2 Charleroi — a Charleroi win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Charleroi trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cercle Brugge 65% and Charleroi 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 56% | Charleroi 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.59 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 1.093 / defence 0.937 | Charleroi attack 1.005 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.352. Data: built from Cercle Brugge's last 35 games and Charleroi's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 31%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.24 | Draw 4.06 | Charleroi 3.26. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cercle Brugge's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cercle Brugge 60% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Cercle Brugge 35 games, Charleroi 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Cercle Brugge 1.59 / Charleroi 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 1.093 / def 0.937 | Charleroi attack 1.005 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Charleroi xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Cercle Brugge 2 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (1.09) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cercle Brugge's last 35 games and Charleroi's last 34, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.06
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.86
1.27
Charleroi xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
6%
15.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.27 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 15W 11D 8L from 34 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 13L across 34 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.65 PPG, Charleroi on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 8W 6D 3L from their last 17 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 7W 4D 6L across their last 17 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.35 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
Cercle Brugge (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 15W 11D 8L in their last 34 games (1.65 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Charleroi away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.76 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-0 Cercle Brugge.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 65%, Charleroi 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cercle Brugge) and 59% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cercle Brugge and Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cercle Brugge's games and 59% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 59% of Charleroi's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 65% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Charleroi 2-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.59 xG and Charleroi 1.27 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Charleroi attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 45% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 31%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 56%, Charleroi 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.65 PPG, Charleroi 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.