Genk 0-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Genk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genk at Cegeka Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Genk 1W, Charleroi 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Genk 64% and Charleroi 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 67% | Charleroi 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.50 xG and Charleroi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 0.986 / defence 0.955 | Charleroi attack 0.894 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.260. Data: 37 Genk games / 36 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 47% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 27%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 3.70. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genk 60% | Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 47% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Genk 1.50 / Charleroi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 0.986 / def 0.955 | Charleroi attack 0.894 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Genk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Charleroi xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 0 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 47% chance of winning, Charleroi a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
Record (2 meetings): Genk 1W | Draws 1 | Charleroi 0W.
What form are Genk and Charleroi in?
Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.89x) against Genk's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Genk xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
Charleroi xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
6%
16.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Genk and 1.08 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Genk have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 22W 7D 7L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 14W 8D 14L from 36 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (12W 2D 3L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.31 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 22W 7D 7L in their last 36 games (2.03 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.24 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 65%, Charleroi 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Genk and 59% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Genk's games and 59% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Genk's matches and 59% of Charleroi's.
Do Genk and Charleroi tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk and Charleroi finished level at 0-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.50 xG and Charleroi 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genk fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Charleroi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Charleroi attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 47% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 27%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 67%, Charleroi 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.