WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Austria Lustenau travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
WSG Wattens are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (0.60 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for WSG Wattens, 2 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with WSG Wattens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Austria Lustenau 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 55% | Austria Lustenau 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.57 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.088 / defence 1.276 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.715 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.189. Data: 39 WSG Wattens games / 39 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 48% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 26%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Lustenau 3.85. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | Austria Lustenau 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 48% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG WSG Wattens 1.57 / Austria Lustenau 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.088 / def 1.276 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.715 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Austria Lustenau xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 48% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
Record (5 meetings): WSG Wattens 3W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 2W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.09x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.66
1.08
Austria Lustenau xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
18.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.08 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 49 games, going 13W 10D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (11W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.00 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 5W 7D 12L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.18 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 13W 10D 26L in their last 49 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 25L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.92 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
1
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when WSG Wattens 0-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 62%, Austria Lustenau 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (WSG Wattens) and 46% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 29% of games; Austria Lustenau in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 46% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 46% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Lustenau cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.57 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.08 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Austria Lustenau outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.09 / defence 1.28 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 48% | Draw 26% | Austria Lustenau 26%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Austria Lustenau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 55%, Austria Lustenau 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Lustenau win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.