Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 2.00 for Sturm Graz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 43% versus Sturm Graz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 49% | Sturm Graz 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.32 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.111 / defence 0.826 | Sturm Graz attack 1.141 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.192. Data: 39 Red Bull Salzburg games / 39 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 41% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 32%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Sturm Graz 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | Sturm Graz 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 41% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.32 / Sturm Graz 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.111 / def 0.826 | Sturm Graz attack 1.141 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 41% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.14x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.68
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.45
1.12
Sturm Graz xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.12 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 35W 11D 3L from 49 games, a 2.37 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 8L across 49 games — 2.10 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.37 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 2.10 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 16W 6D 2L from 24 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 13W 7D 4L across 24 trips, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.73 scored and 0.84 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg's scoring rate against Sturm Graz's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 35W 11D 3L in their last 49 games (2.37 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 31W 10D 8L in their last 49 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.25 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Red Bull Salzburg
4
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 38%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 50% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.32 xG and Sturm Graz 1.12 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.11 / defence 0.83 against Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 41% | Draw 27% | Sturm Graz 32%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 49%, Sturm Graz 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Red Bull Salzburg 2.37 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.