Wolfsberger AC 0-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 1W, Rapid Vienna 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 63% and Rapid Vienna 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 69% | Rapid Vienna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.091 / defence 0.952 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.152 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.189. Data: 39 Wolfsberger AC games / 39 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Rapid Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Rapid Vienna 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.15 / Rapid Vienna 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.091 / def 0.952 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.152 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Rapid Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 32% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Record (3 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 1W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 1W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.09x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.15x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.49
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.30
Rapid Vienna xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.30 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 10D 21L from 49 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 19L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.35 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 4D 13L from 24 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 9W 4D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.63 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 10D 21L in their last 49 games (1.31 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.04 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Rapid Vienna 2-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 71%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wolfsberger AC and 54% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 54% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.15 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.30 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 32% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 39%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 69%, Rapid Vienna 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.