Veres Rivne 4-3 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Veres Rivne have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Avanhard — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Kharkiv are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Veres Rivne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for FC Kharkiv, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Veres Rivne winning.
The historical record gives Veres Rivne a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 49% versus FC Kharkiv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 44% | FC Kharkiv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.32 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.114 / defence 1.248 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.780 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.211. Data: 43 Veres Rivne games / 43 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 32%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | FC Kharkiv 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Veres Rivne dominate the H2H record, yet FC Kharkiv are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 70% | FC Kharkiv 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Veres Rivne 1.32 / FC Kharkiv 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.114 / def 1.248 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.780 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne 4 - 3 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 39% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Veres Rivne 3W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Veres Rivne's attack at 1.11x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.55
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.50
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.18 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 8W 12D 23L from 43 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 16L across 43 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 0.84 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 5W 6D 11L from 22 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 11D 8L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.81 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 8W 12D 23L in their last 43 games (0.84 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 17D 16L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Veres Rivne's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 0.95 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Kharkiv won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
0
Draws
3
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 59%, FC Kharkiv 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Veres Rivne) and 27% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 36%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 32% of games; FC Kharkiv in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 32% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out FC Kharkiv 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat FC Kharkiv 4-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.32 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Veres Rivne beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.11 / defence 1.25 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 39% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 32%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 44%, FC Kharkiv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 0.84 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.