Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shakhtar Donetsk face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FC Kharkiv's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Kharkiv away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Shakhtar Donetsk's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shakhtar Donetsk, who have won 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against FC Kharkiv — FC Kharkiv have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 FC Kharkiv — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
FC Kharkiv — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 54% versus FC Kharkiv 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 60% | FC Kharkiv 42%). Note also that FC Kharkiv surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Shakhtar Donetsk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.60 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.115 / defence 0.926 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.908 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.240. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.274 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output up. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 43 games and FC Kharkiv's last 44.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 49% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 23%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.04 | Draw 3.61 | FC Kharkiv 4.28. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 home games and FC Kharkiv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 49% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.60 / FC Kharkiv 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.115 / def 0.926 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.908 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.127 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
1.04
FC Kharkiv xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 2 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 49% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.91x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 43 games and FC Kharkiv's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.61
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.64
1.04
FC Kharkiv xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
5%
21.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.04 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 43 games, going 29W 10D 4L for 2.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.07 PPG from 43 outings (10W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 15W 4D 2L across their last 21 home games, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.88 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 29W 10D 4L in their last 43 games (2.26 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 16D 17L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.33 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won FC Kharkiv 0-7 Shakhtar Donetsk on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: FC Kharkiv 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 43%, FC Kharkiv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 29% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 33%; FC Kharkiv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 38% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 67% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat FC Kharkiv 2-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.60 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.04 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.91 / defence 1.27, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 49% | Draw 28% | FC Kharkiv 23%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 60%, FC Kharkiv 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.