Polessya 2-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Kharkiv make the trip to Tsentralnyi Stadion to face Polessya in Premier League (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Polessya (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Polessya at home: 3W 1D 1L from their last 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Kharkiv's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Polessya's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC Kharkiv's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 38% versus FC Kharkiv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 46% | FC Kharkiv 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.21 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.064 / defence 0.986 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.764 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.174. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Polessya's last 13 games and FC Kharkiv's last 42.
Result probabilities: Polessya 43% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 26%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | FC Kharkiv 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Polessya's last 5 home games and FC Kharkiv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Polessya 60% (last 5 home games) | FC Kharkiv 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 43% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Polessya 1.21 / FC Kharkiv 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.064 / def 0.986 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.764 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Polessya (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Kharkiv xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Polessya vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Polessya vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Polessya 2 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Polessya vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Polessya vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 43% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Polessya and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Polessya vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Polessya's attack at 1.06x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.76x) against Polessya's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 13 games and FC Kharkiv's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.23
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.10
0.88
FC Kharkiv xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Polessya and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Polessya and 0.88 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Polessya come into this having played 13 games, going 8W 2D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Polessya's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 5 away games (1W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Polessya are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Polessya vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Polessya's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Polessya or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Polessya and FC Kharkiv, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Polessya have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Polessya
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2026: Polessya 3-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and FC Kharkiv?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 60%, FC Kharkiv 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Polessya and 20% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Polessya's recent matches and 40% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Polessya's recent games and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Polessya's recent matches and 80% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Polessya edge out FC Kharkiv 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat FC Kharkiv 2-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.21 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.88 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 43% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 26%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 46%, FC Kharkiv 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.