Dynamo Kyiv 4-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv meet at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 7 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo Kyiv have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Kharkiv (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Kharkiv's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Dynamo Kyiv's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for FC Kharkiv and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended Dynamo Kyiv 1–1 FC Kharkiv — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 48% versus FC Kharkiv 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 50% | FC Kharkiv 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.81 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.241 / defence 0.806 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.846 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.209. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output up. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 42 games and FC Kharkiv's last 45.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 59% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 15%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.69 | Draw 3.87 | FC Kharkiv 6.64. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (59%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 59% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.81 / FC Kharkiv 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.241 / def 0.806 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.846 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Dynamo Kyiv 4 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 59% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.24x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.85x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 42 games and FC Kharkiv's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.87
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.63
0.82
FC Kharkiv xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
2%
40.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.82 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 42 games, going 25W 7D 10L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 1.00 PPG from 42 outings (9W 15D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 11W 4D 6L across their last 21 home games, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 21 away games (3W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.83 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 25W 7D 10L in their last 42 games (1.95 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 15D 18L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
3
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: FC Kharkiv 1-0 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 33% (FC Kharkiv) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 29% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 33%; Dynamo Kyiv have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Kharkiv in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 29% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 62% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat FC Kharkiv 4-2 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.81 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.82 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 59% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 15%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 50%, FC Kharkiv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.