Ruh Lviv 0-2 Dynamo Kyiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Ruh Lviv face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Ruh Lviv versus Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ruh Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.10 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv over their recent games (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Dynamo Kyiv, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Ruh Lviv 0–0 Dynamo Kyiv — a draw.
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 51% versus Dynamo Kyiv 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 33% | Dynamo Kyiv 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.82 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.777 / defence 1.083 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.335 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 0.876. Ruh Lviv's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Dynamo Kyiv have an above-average attack rating of 1.335, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 51 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 51.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 47%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 4.13 | Draw 3.44 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.14. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 30% (last 10 home games) | Dynamo Kyiv 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 22 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Ruh Lviv 0.82 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.777 / def 1.083 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.335 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.194 / away 0.876 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 2 Dynamo Kyiv.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 22) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 24% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.33x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 51 games and Dynamo Kyiv's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.44
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.09
1.27
Dynamo Kyiv xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
21%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 15.7 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.27 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 51 games, going 18W 21D 12L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 2.35 PPG from 51 outings (37W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 7W 11D 6L across their last 24 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 2.21 points per game from their last 24 away games (16W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.27 scored and 0.84 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's attacking output running into Ruh Lviv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Dynamo Kyiv in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Dynamo Kyiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 21D 12L in their last 51 games (1.47 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 37W 9D 5L in their last 51 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.33 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Kyiv have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won Ruh Lviv 1-5 Dynamo Kyiv on 8 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dynamo Kyiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
7
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 50%, Dynamo Kyiv 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ruh Lviv) and 62% (Dynamo Kyiv).
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Dynamo Kyiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ruh Lviv's games and 71% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 62% of Dynamo Kyiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Dynamo Kyiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 83% of Dynamo Kyiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Ruh Lviv 0-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.82 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.27 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.33 / defence 0.89, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 24% | Draw 29% | Dynamo Kyiv 47%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Dynamo Kyiv 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.