Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ruh Lviv face Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ruh Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena Lviv in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 15 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ruh Lviv's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ruh Lviv at 1.20 PPG versus Vorskla Poltava's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Ruh Lviv 0–0 Vorskla Poltava — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 52% versus Vorskla Poltava 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 34% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.841 / defence 1.068 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.938 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 0.898. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 50 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 50.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.50 | Draw 3.27 | Vorskla Poltava 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 40% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.10 / Vorskla Poltava 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.841 / def 1.068 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.938 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.258 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 40% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.84x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 50 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.27
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.00
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 50 games, going 18W 21D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.02 PPG from 50 outings (13W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 8W 11D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.92 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 21D 11L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 12D 25L in their last 50 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.46 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Aug 2023, when Ruh Lviv won Ruh Lviv 4-1 Vorskla Poltava.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Ruh Lviv 0-1 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 54%, Vorskla Poltava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ruh Lviv and 33% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 42% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 33% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Vorskla Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 58% of Vorskla Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 40% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 29%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 34%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.