Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Inhulets at 35%, yet in-form Veres Rivne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Inhulets vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Hirnyk plays host to Inhulets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Inhulets have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Inhulets have posted 2W 0D 3L from their last 5 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Veres Rivne's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Veres Rivne's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Veres Rivne arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Inhulets 2–2 Veres Rivne — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Inhulets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 20 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 35% versus Veres Rivne 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 40% | Veres Rivne 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.93 xG and Veres Rivne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.693 / defence 0.995 | Veres Rivne attack 1.028 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 0.865. Inhulets's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Inhulets's last 20 games and Veres Rivne's last 51.

Result probabilities: Inhulets 35% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 32%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.87 | Draw 3.06 | Veres Rivne 3.08. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Inhulets are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Veres Rivne (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Inhulets's last 5 home games and Veres Rivne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Inhulets 0% (last 5 home games) | Veres Rivne 40% (last 10 away games).

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