Kryvbas KR 3-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kryvbas KR — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR's home record at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Kharkiv stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Kryvbas KR have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Kryvbas KR have won 2, FC Kharkiv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 40% versus FC Kharkiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 42% | FC Kharkiv 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.59 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.078 / defence 0.863 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.882 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.260. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Kryvbas KR games / 55 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | FC Kharkiv 4.55. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kryvbas KR are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 50% | FC Kharkiv 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.59 / FC Kharkiv 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.078 / def 0.863 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.882 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC Kharkiv xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 51% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
Record (3 meetings): Kryvbas KR 2W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.08) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.64
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.55
0.96
FC Kharkiv xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
22.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.96 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 11D 17L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 0.93 PPG from 55 outings (10W 21D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 15W 5D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.74 points per game from 27 outings (3W 11D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.87 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 27W 11D 17L in their last 55 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 21D 24L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.85 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Kryvbas KR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 4, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 37%, FC Kharkiv 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Kryvbas KR) and 33% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Kryvbas KR have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Kharkiv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 41% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 33% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kryvbas KR run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat FC Kharkiv 3-0 at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.59 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.96 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.88 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 42%, FC Kharkiv 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.