Ruh Lviv 3-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Veres Rivne travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ruh Lviv have posted 1W 8D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Veres Rivne stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Veres Rivne have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Ruh Lviv, 0 for Veres Rivne and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Ruh Lviv 5–2 Veres Rivne — a Ruh Lviv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Veres Rivne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 40% | Veres Rivne 42%). Note also that Veres Rivne surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Ruh Lviv recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.950 / defence 0.822 | Veres Rivne attack 0.668 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.281. Veres Rivne's attack rating of 0.668 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Ruh Lviv's last 55 games and Veres Rivne's last 54.
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 23%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Veres Rivne 4.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Veres Rivne's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Ruh Lviv's last 10 home games and Veres Rivne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ruh Lviv 60% (last 10 home games) | Veres Rivne 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Ruh Lviv 1.06 / Veres Rivne 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.950 / def 0.822 | Veres Rivne attack 0.668 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Veres Rivne xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Ruh Lviv 3 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 43% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.95) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ruh Lviv's last 55 games and Veres Rivne's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
43%
2.33
34%
2.94
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.77
0.70
Veres Rivne xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.70 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 22D 16L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Veres Rivne's form line: 12W 15D 28L from 55 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 26 home games (7W 15D 4L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 5W 6D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.13 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
Ruh Lviv (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 17W 22D 16L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 12W 15D 28L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Veres Rivne away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.38 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2023, when Ruh Lviv won Veres Rivne 2-5 Ruh Lviv.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Ruh Lviv 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 62%, Veres Rivne 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Ruh Lviv and 35% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 27% of games; Veres Rivne in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 35% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 65% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Veres Rivne 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.70 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against Veres Rivne attack 0.67 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 23%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 40%, Veres Rivne 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.