FC Kharkiv 1-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Kharkiv face Obolon'-Brovar.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FC Kharkiv and Obolon'-Brovar meet at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

FC Kharkiv's record over their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Obolon'-Brovar edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 0–1 Obolon'-Brovar — a Obolon'-Brovar win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Obolon'-Brovar half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 62% versus Obolon'-Brovar 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.59 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.027 / defence 1.286 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.697 / defence 1.385. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.289. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Kharkiv's projected output up. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.697 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.286 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output up. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 54 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 24.

Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 47% | Draw 26% | Obolon'-Brovar 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.12 | Draw 3.91 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.66. FC Kharkiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 70% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 20% (last 10 away games).

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