Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Sukhothai FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sukhothai FC make the trip to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to face Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 21 February 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Nakhon Ratchasima FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sukhothai FC (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Sukhothai FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.20 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–1 Sukhothai FC — a Sukhothai FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 68% and Sukhothai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% | Sukhothai FC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.896 / defence 1.468 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.750 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.207. Sukhothai FC's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.33. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating of 1.468 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sukhothai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 22 games and Sukhothai FC's last 52.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 43% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.35 | Draw 3.83 | Sukhothai FC 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 50% (last 10 away games).

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