Port FC 4-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port FC face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Port FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Port FC against 0.80 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Port FC edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Port FC 3–2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC — a Port FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 65% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 61% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Nakhon Ratchasima FC surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Port FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.97 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.099 / defence 1.124 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.797 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.189. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Data: built from Port FC's last 51 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 23.
Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.74 | Draw 4.28 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.20. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 24 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Port FC 1.97 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.099 / def 1.124 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.797 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC FAQs
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC 4 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 24) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 57% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.10) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.80x) against Port FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Port FC's last 51 games and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.28
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.06
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
37.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Port FC and 1.06 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 10W 7D 6L from 23 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 7L across 23 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Port FC against 1.22 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 6W 3D 2L from their last 11 home games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 5D 4L across their last 11 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 70%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Port FC (Home) vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Form FAQs
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 10D 7L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.91 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Port FC have won 6, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 73%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Port FC) and 46% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Port FC's games and 54% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Port FC's matches and 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Port FC's recent matches and 54% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.97 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 61%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.61 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.