Port FC 4-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's home record at PAT Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Port FC against 0.80 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Port FC lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 65% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 61% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.97 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.099 / defence 1.124 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.797 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.189. Data: 51 Port FC games / 23 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Port FC 1.97 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.099 / def 1.124 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.797 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC 4 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 57% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (5 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.10) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.80x) against Port FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 51/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
57%
1.74
23%
4.28
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.06
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
3%
37.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Port FC and 1.06 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 10W 7D 6L from 23 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 7L across 23 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Port FC against 1.22 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 5D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.26 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 10W 7D 6L in their last 23 games (1.61 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 10D 7L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.91 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 6, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 73%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Port FC) and 46% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Port FC's games and 54% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Port FC's matches and 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4-2 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.97 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.12 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 57% | Draw 23% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 19%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 61%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.61 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.