Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Nakhon Ratchasima FC at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pitchaya Stadium, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 0.90 PPG versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nong Bua Pitchaya, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.69 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.893 / defence 1.057 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.215. Data: 21 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 21 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 53% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.55. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 53% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.69 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.893 / def 1.057 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.774 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (5 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 2W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nong Bua Pitchaya's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
53%
1.87
25%
4.04
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.69
0.99
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
4%
24.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.99 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 5W 6D 10L from 21 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 7L across 21 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 6D 10L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.80 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2022, when Nong Bua Pitchaya won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 30% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Nong Bua Pitchaya and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.69 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.10, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 53% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 22%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 67%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.