Chiangrai United 1-0 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chiangrai United face Rayong FC.

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Full Analysis

Singha Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Chiangrai United (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rayong FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Rayong FC away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Chiangrai United, 1.00 for Rayong FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Chiangrai United 0–2 Rayong FC — a Rayong FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Rayong FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 28% versus Rayong FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 40% | Rayong FC 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Rayong FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Rayong FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.837 / defence 0.726 | Rayong FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.181. Rayong FC's defence rating of 1.314 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chiangrai United's projected output up. Chiangrai United have a tight defence (rating 0.726), which is pulling Rayong FC's projected output down. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 55 games and Rayong FC's last 25.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 61% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.63 | Draw 4.40 | Rayong FC 6.26. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 20% (last 10 home games) | Rayong FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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