Sukhothai FC 2-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 1 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 59% versus Ratchaburi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 65% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.61 xG and Ratchaburi 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.999 / defence 1.182 | Ratchaburi attack 1.281 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.189. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Sukhothai FC games / 54 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 35% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 43%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Ratchaburi 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 35% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.61 / Ratchaburi 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.999 / def 1.182 | Ratchaburi attack 1.281 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Ratchaburi xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 35% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 43% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (5 meetings): Sukhothai FC 2W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
35%
2.86
22%
4.44
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.41
1.80
Ratchaburi xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
6%
17.31
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.80 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 16W 11D 27L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 22W 13D 19L from 54 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.09 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 27 outings (14W 3D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 7W 8D 12L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.54 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 11D 27L in their last 54 games (1.09 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 56%, Ratchaburi 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Sukhothai FC) and 44% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 48% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 44% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Ratchaburi 2-1 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.61 xG and Ratchaburi 1.80 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Ratchaburi attack 1.28 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 35% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 43%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 65%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.09 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.