Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium plays host to Nakhon Pathom versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's home record at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Nakhon Pathom, 1.40 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Nakhon Pathom 1W, Uthai Thani 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Uthai Thani winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Pathom 65% versus Uthai Thani 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 63% | Uthai Thani 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.35 xG and Uthai Thani 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.780 / defence 1.449 | Uthai Thani attack 0.989 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.208. Nakhon Pathom's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Nakhon Pathom games / 54 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 46%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Uthai Thani 2.17. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 70% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.35 / Uthai Thani 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.780 / def 1.449 | Uthai Thani attack 0.989 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Uthai Thani xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 30% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani?
Record (3 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 1W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.99x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
30%
3.37
24%
4.11
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.08
1.73
Uthai Thani xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.73 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 12W 15D 27L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 18W 14D 22L from 54 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.26 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1.08 PPG from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 8W 4D 13L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.33 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 12W 15D 27L in their last 54 games (0.94 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Uthai Thani away?
Uthai Thani's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.08 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani?
Nakhon Pathom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 72%, Uthai Thani 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Nakhon Pathom and 60% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 52% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 60% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.35 xG and Uthai Thani 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.78 / defence 1.45 against Uthai Thani attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 30% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 46%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Nakhon Pathom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 63%, Uthai Thani 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.94 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.