IFK Goteborg 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sirius at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Goteborg face Sirius.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

IFK Goteborg and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

IFK Goteborg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Sirius (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for IFK Goteborg, 2 for Sirius and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2024, ended IFK Goteborg 2–2 Sirius — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Sirius 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | Sirius 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.23 xG and Sirius 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.770 / defence 1.039 | Sirius attack 1.157 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.360. IFK Goteborg's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Data: built from IFK Goteborg's last 48 games and Sirius's last 48.

Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 29% | Draw 24% | Sirius 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.48 | Draw 4.10 | Sirius 2.13. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Goteborg's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 60% (last 10 away games).

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