Djurgardens IF 0-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tele2 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tele2 Arena this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
AIK Stockholm have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Djurgardens IF's 1 victories.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
It is worth noting that AIK Stockholm have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 45% versus AIK Stockholm 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | AIK Stockholm 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.82 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.878 / defence 0.816 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.939 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.361. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Djurgardens IF games / 48 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 56% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 22%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | AIK Stockholm 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
AIK Stockholm lead the H2H ledger, but Djurgardens IF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 56% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.82 / AIK Stockholm 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.878 / def 0.816 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.939 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
AIK Stockholm xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 56% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (6 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 5W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.37
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.04
AIK Stockholm xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
28.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.04 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 26W 7D 14L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 17W 11D 19L from 47 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AIK Stockholm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.00 PPG from 23 outings (14W 4D 5L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 26W 7D 14L in their last 47 games (1.81 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 11D 19L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 30%, AIK Stockholm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Djurgardens IF) and 56% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 61% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Djurgardens IF 0-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.82 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.04 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 56% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 22%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, AIK Stockholm 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with AIK Stockholm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.