Sirius 3-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Kalmar FF (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sirius's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Sirius 2W, Kalmar FF 1W, 5D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 53% versus Kalmar FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 64% | Kalmar FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.18 xG and Kalmar FF 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.208 / defence 1.184 | Kalmar FF attack 0.908 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.359. Data: 47 Sirius games / 47 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 54% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 26%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Kalmar FF 3.85. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 54% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Sirius 2.18 / Kalmar FF 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.208 / def 1.184 | Kalmar FF attack 0.908 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Sirius (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Kalmar FF xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Sirius 3 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sirius vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 54% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sirius and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Record (8 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 5 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.91x) against Sirius's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
54%
1.85
21%
4.88
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.64
1.46
Kalmar FF xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
11%
8.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
3%
34.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sirius and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Sirius and 1.46 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 19W 9D 19L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 22L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Sirius against 1.30 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 10W 3D 10L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 8W 3D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.21 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 19W 9D 19L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 18W 7D 22L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Kalmar FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
5
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 52%, Kalmar FF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sirius and 61% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Sirius's recent matches and 52% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sirius's matches and 61% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Sirius and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Kalmar FF 3-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.18 xG and Kalmar FF 1.46 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.21 / defence 1.18 against Kalmar FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 54% | Draw 21% | Kalmar FF 26%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, Kalmar FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.40 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.