Las Palmas 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Las Palmas face Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Las Palmas host Granada CF at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 5 games, Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 3L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Looking at their last 5 matches, Granada CF stand at 1W 0D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 3.20. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Las Palmas at 0.40 PPG versus Granada CF's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 20% versus Granada CF 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 0% | Granada CF 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.55 xG and Granada CF 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.677 / defence 0.960 | Granada CF attack 1.066 / defence 1.505. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.231. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.677 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.55. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.505 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Las Palmas's projected output up. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 5 games and Granada CF's last 5.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 31%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.29 | Draw 3.90 | Granada CF 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Las Palmas's last 5 games and Granada CF's last 5 games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 20% (last 5 games) | Granada CF 80% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Las Palmas 1.55 / Granada CF 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.677 / def 0.960 | Granada CF attack 1.066 / def 1.505 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Granada CF xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Granada CF FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Granada CF kick off?
Las Palmas vs Granada CF kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Granada CF?
Las Palmas 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Las Palmas vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Granada CF part of?
Las Palmas vs Granada CF is a La Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 44% chance of winning, Granada CF a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Las Palmas and Granada CF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Las Palmas vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 5 games and Granada CF's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.90
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.81
1.26
Granada CF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Granada CF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.26 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Granada CF's form line: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Las Palmas on 0.40 PPG, Granada CF on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.80 scored and 3.20 conceded. Granada CF's attacking output running into Las Palmas's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Las Palmas have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Granada CF in 80%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Early Season
Granada CF
Early Season
Las Palmas (Home) vs Granada CF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Early Season
Granada CF
Early Season
❓ Las Palmas vs Granada CF Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Las Palmas
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Granada CF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Granada CF?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 1, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Granada CF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Granada CF 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Granada CF?
Las Palmas have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 20%, Granada CF 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Las Palmas) and 80% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Granada CF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Granada CF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 80% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Granada CF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Las Palmas's recent games and 80% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Granada CF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 20% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 80% of Granada CF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Las Palmas edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.55 xG and Granada CF 1.26 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Granada CF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against Granada CF attack 1.07 / defence 1.50, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 44% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 31%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 0%, Granada CF 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 0.40 PPG, Granada CF 0.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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