Girona 5-3 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Mallorca at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 7W 0D 3L at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.50 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Girona have won 1, Mallorca 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Girona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mallorca trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 70% versus Mallorca 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 58% | Mallorca 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.82 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.127 / defence 0.864 | Mallorca attack 0.927 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.194. Data: 43 Girona games / 43 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 19%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Mallorca 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Girona (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 58% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Girona 1.82 / Mallorca 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.127 / def 0.864 | Mallorca attack 0.927 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Girona (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mallorca xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Mallorca kick off?
Girona vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Girona 5 - 3 Mallorca.
Where is Girona vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Mallorca part of?
Girona vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 58% chance of winning, Mallorca a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Girona and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Girona and Mallorca in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.13) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
58%
1.73
23%
4.39
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Girona xG
Total xG
2.78
0.95
Mallorca xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
3%
31.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Girona and 0.95 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 43 games, going 17W 11D 15L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (15W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.44 PPG, Mallorca on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Girona's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.86 points per game from 21 outings (5W 3D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.95 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 17W 11D 15L in their last 43 games (1.44 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Mallorca away?
Girona's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.86 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Girona or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Mallorca in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Mallorca?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Mallorca?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 67%, Mallorca 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Girona) and 43% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Girona's recent matches and 43% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Girona's recent games and 43% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Mallorca tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Mallorca 5-3 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.82 xG and Mallorca 0.95 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 58% | Draw 23% | Mallorca 19%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Mallorca 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.44 PPG, Mallorca 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.