Granada CF 2-4 Girona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Girona at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Granada CF and Girona meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Monday 18 September 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Granada CF (all games): 1W 0D 3L across 4 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Girona have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Girona have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Girona are 0.75 PPG clear of Granada CF in recent La Liga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.75). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Granada CF register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Girona in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Granada CF 75% and Girona 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 75% | Girona 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.24 xG and Girona 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.917 / defence 1.323 | Girona attack 1.060 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.149. Data: 4 Granada CF games / 42 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 29% | Draw 25% | Girona 46%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Girona 2.17. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 75% | Girona 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 29% | Draw 25% | Girona 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Granada CF 1.24 / Girona 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.917 / def 1.323 | Girona attack 1.060 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Girona (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Girona xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Girona kick off?
Granada CF vs Girona kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Girona?
Granada CF 2 - 4 Girona.
Where is Granada CF vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Girona part of?
Granada CF vs Girona is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 29% chance of winning, Girona a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Granada CF and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Girona in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-W-L. Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Girona's attack (1.06x) against Granada CF's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
29%
3.40
25%
4.07
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.61
Girona xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.61 for Girona, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 0D 3L record — L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Girona's form line: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games, 2.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 1.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Girona in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Girona in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Girona have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Granada CF or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Girona in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Granada CF
0
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Girona?
From 2 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Girona have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2024, when Girona 7-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 75%, Girona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Granada CF and 50% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Granada CF's games and 50% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Granada CF's matches and 50% of Girona's.
Do Granada CF and Girona tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Girona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Granada CF 2-4 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.24 xG and Girona 1.61 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Girona outscored their 1.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.92 / defence 1.32 against Girona attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 29% | Draw 25% | Girona 46%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 75%, Girona 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Granada CF shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.