Almeria 0-3 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Almeria at 39%, yet in-form Alaves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almeria vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Almeria host Alaves at Power Horse Stadium in La Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 26 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Almeria — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Almeria have posted 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Alaves stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Alaves are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Almeria's games and 60% of Alaves's (from Almeria's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Almeria have won 0, Alaves 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Almeria 0–1 Alaves — a Alaves win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Alaves in-play and half-time data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 67% versus Alaves 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 67% | Alaves 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.19 xG and Alaves 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.780 / defence 1.068 | Alaves attack 0.806 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.153. Almeria's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Almeria's last 59 games and Alaves's last 21.

Result probabilities: Almeria 39% | Draw 32% | Alaves 29%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.57 | Draw 3.13 | Alaves 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Almeria as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Almeria 60% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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