Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gwangju FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1 (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gwangju FC — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gwangju FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Gwangju FC's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Gwangju FC 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Gwangju FC 26%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gimcheon Sangmu FC surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Gwangju FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 xG and Gwangju FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / defence 1.220 | Gwangju FC attack 0.904 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.095. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gwangju FC's projected output up. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 5 games and Gwangju FC's last 38.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.99 | Draw 3.13 | Gwangju FC 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 6 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 / Gwangju FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / def 1.220 | Gwangju FC attack 0.904 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Gwangju FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC FAQs
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 6) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 33% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.88) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 5 games and Gwangju FC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.13
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Gwangju FC xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.21 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 38 games, going 7W 13D 18L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (16W 11D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Gwangju FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 4W 5D 10L across their last 19 home games, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.47 points per game from their last 19 away games (7W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.24 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gwangju FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Home) vs Gwangju FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC Form FAQs
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 16W 11D 11L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gwangju FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 0.89 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 5 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
6
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 83% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 26% for Gwangju FC.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC in 32%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 26% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gwangju FC 2-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 xG and Gwangju FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.22 against Gwangju FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.87, drawn from 5/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 32% | Gwangju FC 35%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Gwangju FC 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gwangju FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.