Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 4W 3D 3L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daegu FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.60 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, Daegu FC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 3–4 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Daegu FC trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 47% versus Daegu FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 43% | Daegu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.944 / defence 1.034 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Jeonbuk Motors games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 34% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Daegu FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 34% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 / Daegu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.944 / def 1.034 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Daegu FC xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 34% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 2W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 3W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 0.94x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
34%
2.95
27%
3.70
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.49
1.30
Daegu FC xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
10.78
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.30 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 25W 20D 29L from 74 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 27D 25L across 74 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.28 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 15W 12D 10L from 37 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 10W 10D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 74 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 25W 20D 29L in their last 74 games (1.28 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 22W 27D 25L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.54 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 60%, Daegu FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 40% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daegu FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 49% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 40% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 3-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 4, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 34% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 43%, Daegu FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.28 PPG, Daegu FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.