Jeonbuk Motors 0-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeonbuk Motors face Incheon United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors welcome Incheon United to Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off is Saturday 2 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Jeonbuk Motors at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Incheon United have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.00 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 1 for Incheon United and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Jeonbuk Motors 1–0 Incheon United — a Jeonbuk Motors win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Incheon United trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 48% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Incheon United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG and Incheon United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.941 / defence 1.037 | Incheon United attack 0.866 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 66 games and Incheon United's last 66.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 33%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.53 | Draw 3.59 | Incheon United 3.07. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 60% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 / Incheon United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.941 / def 1.037 | Incheon United attack 0.866 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Incheon United xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United FAQs
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United?
Jeonbuk Motors 0 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United is a K League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 40% chance of winning, Incheon United a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 0.94x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 66 games and Incheon United's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.59
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.36
1.11
Incheon United xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.11 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 25W 19D 29L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Incheon United's form line: 22W 25D 26L from 73 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.29 PPG, Incheon United on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 36 home games (15W 11D 10L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 12W 12D 12L from their last 36 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.10 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors (Home) vs Incheon United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United Form FAQs
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 25W 19D 29L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 22W 25D 26L in their last 73 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Incheon United away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.56 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 May 2024, when Incheon United won Incheon United 3-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeonbuk Motors
5
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, Incheon United have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Incheon United 1-1 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 61%, Incheon United 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 44% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Incheon United in 33%; Incheon United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeonbuk Motors vs Incheon United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 47% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 44% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 61% of Incheon United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jeonbuk Motors's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Incheon United finished level at 0-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG and Incheon United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Incheon United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Incheon United attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 33%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 44%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.29 PPG, Incheon United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.