Damac 0-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Taawon meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Damac's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Damac at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Damac are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al Taawon have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Damac, 2 for Al Taawon and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Damac 0–0 Al Taawon — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 53% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 48% | Al Taawon 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Damac surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Taawon have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.05 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.863 / defence 0.845 | Al Taawon attack 0.971 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.415. Data: built from Damac's last 58 games and Al Taawon's last 58.
Result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 37%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.13 | Draw 3.26 | Al Taawon 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 32% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Damac 1.05 / Al Taawon 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.863 / def 0.845 | Al Taawon attack 0.971 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Taawon xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al Taawon FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al Taawon kick off?
Damac vs Al Taawon kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Damac 0 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Damac vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taawon part of?
Damac vs Al Taawon is a Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 32% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Damac and Al Taawon will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Damac vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.86x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.97x) against Damac's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 58 games and Al Taawon's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
32%
3.13
31%
3.26
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Damac xG
Total xG
2.21
1.16
Al Taawon xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al Taawon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Damac and 1.16 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Damac have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 19W 17D 22L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Taawon's form line: 29W 16D 13L from 58 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 9D 9L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 15W 9D 5L from their last 29 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.60 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 64%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
Damac (Home) vs Al Taawon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Current Season
Al Taawon
Current Season
❓ Damac vs Al Taawon Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 19W 17D 22L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Damac and Al Taawon, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 12 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won Al Taawon 6-1 Damac on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al Taawon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 1, Al Taawon have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taawon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 February 2026: Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 52%, Al Taawon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Damac) and 45% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 34%; Damac have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al Taawon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al Taawon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Damac's games and 59% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al Taawon matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Damac's recent games and 45% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taawon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Damac's recent matches and 66% of Al Taawon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Damac 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Damac 0-1 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.05 xG and Al Taawon 1.16 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Damac fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.86 / defence 0.84 against Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 32% | Draw 31% | Al Taawon 37%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 48%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taawon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.