Al-Fayha 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Taee encounter.

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Analysis

Al Taee make the trip to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to face Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Thursday 25 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fayha have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al Taee's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Taee's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Al-Fayha. A 0.70 PPG lead over Al Taee (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Fayha edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended Al-Fayha 3–3 Al Taee — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Al-Fayha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 55% versus Al Taee 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 55% | Al Taee 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.73 xG and Al Taee 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.933 / defence 1.102 | Al Taee attack 0.753 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.427. Al Taee's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 58 games and Al Taee's last 58.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 49% | Draw 26% | Al Taee 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.03 | Draw 3.88 | Al Taee 4.00. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Taee 40% (last 10 away games).

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