Damac 4-2 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Damac at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Damac host Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Abha stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.30 PPG, Abha 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Damac have won 3, Abha 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Damac in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Abha in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Abha 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 51% | Abha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 2.28 xG and Abha 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.095 / defence 0.922 | Abha attack 0.808 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.444. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Damac games / 43 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 64% | Draw 20% | Abha 16%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Abha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Damac (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 70% | Abha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 64% | Draw 20% | Abha 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Damac 2.28 / Abha 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.095 / def 0.922 | Abha attack 0.808 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Damac (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Abha xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Abha kick off?
Damac vs Abha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Abha?
Damac 4 - 2 Abha.
Where is Damac vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Abha part of?
Damac vs Abha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 64% chance of winning, Abha a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Damac and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Abha?
Record (4 meetings): Damac 3W | Draws 0 | Abha 1W.
What form are Damac and Abha in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Abha's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.89
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Damac xG
Total xG
3.36
1.08
Abha xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
10%
9.82
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
2%
62.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Damac and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Damac and 1.08 for Abha, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Damac come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 15D 16L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Abha sit at 1.07 PPG from 43 outings (14W 4D 25L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.19 PPG, Abha on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Damac's home form reads 7W 9D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Abha have taken 0.48 points per game from 21 outings (3W 1D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Abha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 1.12 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Abha in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Abha have gone 14W 4D 25L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Abha away?
Damac's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.43 PPG; Abha away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac's record when hosting Abha specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Damac
1
Draws
1
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 4, Abha have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Abha 0-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Abha?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 62%, Abha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Damac) and 62% (Abha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Abha in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Damac's recent matches and 48% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Damac's matches and 62% of Abha's.
Do Damac and Abha tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Abha in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Abha 4-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 2.28 xG and Abha 1.08 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Damac beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Abha outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Abha attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 64% | Draw 20% | Abha 16%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 51%, Abha 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Abha's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.19 PPG, Abha 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.